LineStar® Weekly Knockout (UFC) – UFC 277 Nunes vs. Peña 2

We’re Back With Another LineStar Weekly Knockout!

Written by LineStar contributor, combat sports enthusiast, and practitioner, Chris Guy.

Instagram: @therealsethgeko & Twitter: @DadHallOfFamer

The invitation arrived in the mail, anonymous.  Embossed with silky golden letters, it had an RSVP date just three days from when I had received it.  Curiosity got the better of me.  I immediately sent my acceptance via electronic reply and quickly set about picking out suitable attire for the occasion.  

I had never even had Michelin tires, so I couldn’t fathom dining at one of the three-star restaurants.  I looked up to the top shelf of my closet and blew the dust off an old box.  Inside was a pair of crispy Hush Puppy penny loafers.  Perfect outfits are built on solid foundations from the ground up.

Three days later, not a second late, a plum purple Wraith pulled up outside.  By the time I was to the end of the driveway, a chauffeur wearing a crème and lavender Italian three-piece suit held the door open for me, a gentle bow as I shuffled in.

The location was exquisite, oceanfront overlooking San Diego Bay.  As the sun set, the sky blushed soft shades of red and orange, the perfect setting for my first taste of the high life.  The only thing that was missing was other people.  It looked like the place had rented out on my behalf.  

Before I could wonder about the menu, a hooded figure, all black, wearing a fencing mask with a large PlayStation square painted on the upper half, appeared in a doorway I hadn’t seen.  In its right hand, it held high a large covered silver platter.  

The figure crossed the room without making a sound and placed the platter in front of me.  It lifted the cover.  Gently settled atop a bed of baby romaine lettuce sat a single sheet of paper with one sentence typed on it: “Her most impressive accomplishment in the Octagon was talking herself into this fight after posting a one-fight winning streak against Sara McMann.”

A moment of confusion… 

The figure placed on the table a fork and knife wrapped in a magenta-colored napkin that matched the tablecloth.

From opposite sides of the room, two tall, hooded figures appeared from shadowed corners, each wearing the same black fencing mask but with circles painted on the upper half.  They took positions on either side of me and stood at attention, arms crossed in front of them, a pistol in their right hands. 

…Then it dawned on me.

“No!” I said, shocked. 

The figure removed the hood and pulled the mask away from its face.

Jessica Peña stared at me. 

The message was clear.

I unwrapped the silverware and started eating.

Without delay, the next course was placed in front of me before I could swallow the last bite.  This one wouldn’t go down easy: “This past Black Friday, Juliana Pena was stopped by store security after her mouth attempted to pass several fraudulent checks that her skills couldn’t possibly cash.”  

After chewing for what seemed like an hour, the final bite was in my mouth, and the main course was placed in front of me: “Loss Prevention provided the authorities with security footage of Pena talking about how she’s Amanda Nunes’s worst matchup, how she will drag Nunes into deep waters and submit her, and so on, and so on.”

Halfway through, I asked, “Can I get a doggie bag and take the rest home?”

Juliana shook her head.  No.

Eventually, the final course arrived: “Pena has excellent Jiu-Jitsu, but her striking wouldn’t earn her a top seed on a 90 Day Fiancé reunion special.”

When the fifth platter was finally taken away, Juliana placed a check holder in front of me with an Andes mint resting on top and walked away.  After a couple of steps, she stopped and turned around.  She rummaged in her pocket and withdrew a small square packet and threw it at me.  A pack of Wet-Naps smacked me in the face.

A slight smile pulled at the corners of her mouth, and she continued on her way out the door.  The two goons were a step behind.

Inside the check holder was a business card with the handwritten date July 30, 2022, and two words:  “And Still.”

The Rematch.  Will I be forced to eat my words again?  It was the biggest upset since Matt Serra TKO’d GSP in 2007.  I go back and forth on which one wears the crown.  But let’s examine how Peña pulled it off and answer the question; can she do it again?

The first round couldn’t have gone any worse for Jessica Peña and any better for Amanda Nunes.  Nunes sat down Peña twice in the first round, once with a filthy calf kick and once with a right hand.  Peña then gave up her back and ended the round fighting off choke attempts.

But in the second round, Peña made a huge adjustment.  She said “Fook It!”  She bet on herself and rolled the dice.  In the first round Nunes’ speed caught Peña standing still, flatfooted in place, trying to counter.  Peña was left swinging at air.  But in the second, she started moving forward behind her jab and never stopped.

The second round was the first time Amanda Nunes had run into resistance since the opening seconds of the Cyborg fight.  She panicked and immediately busted out the break-glass-in-case-of-emergency right hand, hoping it would bail her out.  It was like a CD skipping, right hand after right hand.  Nothing but homerun swings.  Peña then started timing Nunes and throwing at the same time and consistently beat Nunes to the punch, leading with her jab.  

Nunes refused to back down or move her head, believing Peña’s punches couldn’t hurt her.  Until they did, and by then it was too late.  Peña beat her down the middle with the jab and right hand over the top and nonstop pressure until Amanda gassed and wilted.  Most importantly, Nunes quit.  Again.  Peña didn’t even have to lock in the choke before Nunes was tapping.  

Will Nunes be able to avoid getting drawn into another self-checkout firefight?  Will she have a choice?  Peña’s biggest advantage is that her window to win the fight is twenty-five minutes.  Nunes’ is ten to fifteen, tops. There’s a lot of pressure on you when you’re working with a limited gas tank and, subsequently, a limited time to finish the fight.  Nunes has to get Peña out of there before she gasses and/or Peña starts gaining momentum.

Peña will have to defend the leg kicks and pressure Nunes early this time.  Even though Peña lost the first round by a large margin, it worked to her benefit by causing Nunes to use a lot of energy.  The game plan should be for Peña to pressure and clinch even if she ends up on her back.  Make Nunes work every minute of each round.

Nunes will be stepping in heavily favored to regain her title at (-290).  At (+235), and possibly getting larger, you already know what time it is for Juliana Peña.  She already beat Nunes, broke and finished her, and it wasn’t fluky like Matt Serra in 2007.  The fight is favored to end prematurely (-225), while a full twenty-five minutes will return (+170) odds.  Peña engineered the blueprint to beat Nunes.  Pressure.  She’ll either go out on her shield early, or slowly grind down Nunes and finish her in the middle rounds.

For the third time in 2022 and the second week in a row, a main event ended due to a random injury last week.  Just sixteen seconds into the fight, Tom Aspinall blew out his knee while throwing a leg kick.  The fight was over before it even started.  It’s fair to say, bet the house on whomever I don’t pick.  Juliana Peña via rear-naked choke, round three.  Wax on, wax off.

Winner: Juliana Peña | Method: Rear-Naked Choke Rd.3

This fight will finally answer the question; does Kai Kara-France have that dog in him?  We ain’t talkin’ that yip-yappin’, ankle-bitin’, rabbit turd droppin’, annoying little Chihuahua type of dog.  We talkin’ bout that SWAT team Belgian Malinois, wearing a bulletproof vest with a rocket launcher attached to it type of dog.  We talking Black Mirror machine gun robot dog.  Just when I start to think Kara-France does have it in him, he gives me reason to doubt.

My latest doubts arose in the third round of his title eliminator against Askar Askarov.  With the fight 1-1, Kara-France had all the momentum heading into the final round, and instead of continuing to pressure, he pumped the brakes and played it safe.  I thought he lost the round and the fight.  When everything’s on the line, it’s telling how fighters react.  Some go for it, and some don’t.  There’s no doubt how Moreno would have fought that third round.

All that aside, Kara-France is a smart, technical kickboxer and will cause Moreno serious problems.  After the first round, the best wrestler in the division, Askar Askarov, couldn’t get Kara-France to the mat.  For his career, Kara-France has a crazy eighty-six percent takedown defense and could make Brandon Moreno a one-dimensional fighter, turning this into a five-round kickboxing match.

Kara-France’s best weapons are his hand speed, perpetual lateral movement, and short one to two-punch combinations.  He averages just under five significant strikes landed per minute, but has never reached one hundred significant strikes in noine UFC fights.  But this is his first five-round fight and Moreno’s pressure might finally push Kara-France near the one hundred mark. For his career, Kara-France is 24-9-1 and 7-2 in the UFC with two TKO/KO’s in the promotion.

This will be the first time in four fights that Brandon Moreno will fight someone other than Deiveson Figueiredo.  You already know his pedigree, purebred savage with a huge heart.  Moreno was originally cut from the UFC before earning his way back and making a run that ended with him being the first fighter from Mexico to hold a UFC belt.

Moreno has long, loose striking with a boxer’s jab that he used to annihilate Figueiredo the second time they fought.  He also has sneaky good wrestling and grappling and overall has no glaring weaknesses in his game.  The key against Kara-France will be making this an ugly, grinding MMA fight.  On the feet Moreno will establish range with his jab and try to avoid extended exchanges in the pocket, while threatening with takedowns through out, even if they’re not successful.  

The numbers for Moreno: Moreno is 19-6-2 for his career and 7-5 in the UFC with one TKO/KO and three subs.  Moreno averages just three and a half significant strikes landed per minute but almost two takedowns per fifteen minutes.  

Moreno opened as the heavy (-215) favorite and Kara-France the (+170) dog.  I think this fight is more of a toss-up, and the value is betting on a finish.  A finish before the allotted twenty-five minutes will return (+120) odds, while going the distance will return (-155) odds.  Brandon Moreno via rear-naked choke, round four.

*Forgot to mention this is a rematch from 2019. A fight that Brandon Moreno won by decision. Moreno out-kickboxed Kara-France the entire fifteen minutes and didn’t even attempt at takedown.

Winner: Brandon Moreno | Method: Rear-Naked Choke Rd.4

After this one, someone will wake up with a frontiersman’s beard in 2029 from a seven-year Steven Seagal Hard To Kill coma.  The last thing he’ll remember will be touching gloves in the center of the Octagon.  It’ll be happy hour at the Snoozy Saloon, and the ghost bartender from The Shining will be serving half-off melatonin cocktails all night long.

If you don’t know who Derrick Lewis is… I don’t even know how to finish that.  I guess the Cliff’s Notes version of his resume boils down to just one stat: In twenty-six career wins, he has twenty-two finishes, including twenty-one TKO/KO’s and the most in UFC history (13).   Lewis is consistently one of the best plus money underdogs you can bet on because even when he’s getting his ass whooped for fourteen and a half minutes, he can still finish the fight with one punch at any moment.

Fantasy-wise, Lewis’ only value is always in a finish.  In twenty-four UFC fights, Lewis averages only two and a half significant strikes landed per minute and has only landed fifty in a fight twice.  No typo.  It’s KO or bust with The Black Beast every time he fights.  Unfortunately, Lewis has lost two of his last three by KO, and his opponent, Sergey Pavlovich, is an undercover killer for hire.  

Sergei Pavlovich has Dim Mak touch of death power.  

“No! Not that brick.  The bottom one.”

It ain’t pretty, Pavlovich’s striking, but it’s deadly.  Pavlovich carries his hands low and throws from unorthodox awkward angles.  He throws his hooks with his elbow higher than his hand, creating a downward chopping motion that cuts through hand-guards.  It’s a sneaky way to land when the opponent thinks he’s protected.

Sergei is 15-1 with twelve TKO/KO’s; his only loss came in his UFC debut to Alistair Overeem.  He’s 3-1 in the UFC and riding a three-fight first round KO winning streak.  This dude is huge; his shoulders are wide enough to literally carry the weight of the world.  Pavlovich can generate a lot of power with short punches and will have a technical advantage on the feet.  

The question is, can the fight last longer than seven and a half minutes?  The over for one and a half rounds will return (+120) odds, while the under will return (-155).  Straight up, the fight is basically a pick ‘em with Pavlovich returning (-115) odds and Lewis (-105).  The odds of this going the distance are equal to those of the Dallas Cowboys winning the Super Bowl this year, laughable.  They’ll sign over the casino on a ten-dollar bet if that happens.  Sergey Pavlovich via TKO, seven minutes and forty-five seconds into round two.  On wax.

Winner: Sergei Pavlovich | Method: TKO Rd.2

This is a banger and could serve as a title eliminator, at least for Alexandre Pantoja, who already has two wins over Brandon Moreno.  In 2020, Alex Perez fought Deiveson Figueiredo for the title but got caught in a guillotine choke and tapped in the opening minutes.  This will be his first fight since that loss, and a win against Pantoja will put him right back in the title mix.

Alexandre Pantoja is an eleven-fight UFC veteran with a promotional record of 8-3.  His only losses in the UFC came to elite grapplers: Deiveson Figueiredo, Askar Askarov, and Dustin Ortiz.  Pantoja can end the fight on his feet, but his bread and butter is Jiu-Jitsu.  He has a slick guard with BJ Penn-like leg dexterity that he uses as a second set of hands like Goro.  At the same time, homie can threaten with a choke, throw up gang signs with his left foot, and tie balloon animals with his right.  His last fight against Brandon Royval looked like a Twister World Championship.  The two were tied up in Boy Scout knots and had to be untangled like Christmas lights at the end of the round.

Pantoja keeps the opponent on the defensive on the mat, continually flowing between passes and sub attempts, and he has some very creative back-takes.  Defensively, Pantoja uses submission attempts to defend takedowns and to create reversals from the guard.  

Pantoja’s stand-up isn’t elite, but he has sneaky power.  He has TKO/KO victories against Matt Schnell and one-time title challenger Wilson Reis.  I guess you would consider Pantoja’s striking similar to wrestler striking, short basic combos with KO power but nothing intricate or advanced.  He’s a swinger and not a boxer.  Not a swinger as in the Holiday Inn Express conference room and seven a.m. continental breakfasts, but swinger as in he swings for the fences. 

Perez made his way to the UFC by way of the Contender series in 2017.  For his career, he’s 24-6 and 6-2 in the UFC with five career TKO/KO’s and seven subs.  On the feet, Perez has wrestler striking but with a strong focus on leg kicks.  He earned a title shot by kicking the shit outta Jussier Formiga’s legs, making him look like Rick James on the couch until the ref stopped the fight.

A bit of a throwback, Perez has an old-school style of ground and pound, raining down hammer fists at a monsoon rate.  He likes to hang out in the half guard and drop bombs; he’s one of the rare fighters who make the half guard and side control positions more dominant than the mount or back mount.  Perez doesn’t focus on passing and instead will Tito Ortiz ground and pound you from the guard. 

Anytime you have two elite wrestlers/grapplers, there’s always a strong chance the fight will mostly remain standing.  That’s why the odds (-145) favor the fight going over two and a half rounds.  A finish before that will return (+110) odds.  But check it, four of Perez’s career losses came by submission, three of those by guillotine.  Pantoja has noine career wins by submission, and although most are rear-naked chokes, guillotines are elementary and always a threat against wrestlers.  On the other hand, Pantoja has never been finished.  There’s definitely value in a finish, especially for Pantoja, but I think a drawn-out kickboxing match will decide this.  Alexandre Pantoja via decision.

Winner: Alexandre Pantoja | Method: Decision

I know you see the “ev,” and I know you know what time it is.  If you look up “ev” and “ov” on Thesaurusdotcom, you’ll see they’re synonymous with getting your entire ass kicked.  Magomed Ankalaev could possibly be the best of the ov/ev fighter and is the most well-rounded light heavyweights I’ve seen since Jon Jones.  If Islam Makhachev is Khabib Lite, Magomed Ankalaev is Khabib Double IPA.  Or, if Chimaev is a bigger Khabib then Ankalaev is a bigger Chimaev.  The skillsets are all similar, but Ankalaev’s striking is better than both.   

Magomed has versatile takedowns in the center of the cage or against the fence in the clinch.  Ankalaev’s top control is stifling and accompanied by heavy, aggressive ground and pound.  There aren’t many holes in his game; his stand-up is technical and precise, and his success isn’t fully dependent on securing takedowns. 

Magomed is 16-1 for his career and 9-1 with eight TKO/KO’s but has yet to win a fight by submission.  Since losing his debut, Ankalaev has won eight straight and will be within range of a title shot if he gets this dub.  But, I’d be tripping if I glossed over that one loss.  It came with one second left in a fight he completely dominated against Paul Craig.  With less than ten seconds remaining in the final round, Ankalaev got caught in a Hail Mary triangle attempt and tapped inexplicably at the buzzer.  The classic Dub World Bank heist that somehow resulted in Ankalaev stealing an L.

This will be a dangerous fight for Ankalaev.  Anthony Smith has KO power on the feet and is a submission specialist with fourteen career submission wins; noine of those came from his guard.  Ankalaev won’t be able to hang out in the top position and salt away a victory.  Smith has an active submission and striking guard and will force Ankalaev to stay busy.  On the feet, Ankalaev is the more technical striker, but Smith is the more dangerous one-strike KO threat.  In addition to fourteen career subs, Smith has noineteen career TKO/KO’s.

That begs the question; how many f**kin’ fights does this guy have?  Fifty-two.  This will be his twenty-second fight in the UFC after beginning his professional career in 2008.  Overall, Smith is 36-16 and hasn’t had a win by decision since 2016.  But on the other hand, Smith has been finished fourteen times in his career.  Smith has the dubious statistical distinction of absorbing more strikes per minute than he delivers.  He averages three significant strikes landed per minute while being hit at four and a half.  

Anthony Smith will be the more diverse striker; he uses both stances and has power in both rear hands.  From southpaw, his left round kick is his go-to weapon, and from orthodox, it’s his right hand.  He throws it from protractor angles, as a hook, a shovel, or overhand.  The key will be defending takedowns and being active from his back if he does end up on the mat.  On the feet, Smith has to pressure Ankalaev and not let Ankalaev dictate a slow, methodical pace.

Magomed Ankalaev will be the prohibited (-500) favorite, and anytime you have a finisher like Anthony Smith at (+365), you have to bust out the Piso Mojado signs because he’ll be dripping with value.  Never forget Ankalaev’s one loss.  The fight ending under two and a half rounds will return plus money at (+110) and is probably the best way to play this one.  The fight going over two and a half rounds is (-145).  After a disappointing performance in a main event against Thiago Santos that likely cost him a title shot, Ankalaev will be looking for a finish.  And you already know how Anthony Smith gets down.  Magomed Ankalaev via TKO, round two.

Winner: Magomed Ankalaev | Method: TKO Rd.2

This is a fight between two sneaky good strikers with plus money odds (+140) on a finish under two and a half rounds.  Semelsberger (-165) has one-punch KO power and has two wins in the UFC under sixteen seconds.  In 2020, Morono (+135) lost to Khaos Williams by KO in twenty-seven seconds.  Semelsberger also has a loss to Khaos, but Semelsberger went the distance.

Semelsberger is 10-3 for his career and 4-1 in the UFC, with two wins by KO.  Alex Morono is 21-7, including 10-4-1 in the UFC.  But Morono only has three finishes in the promotion.  Although Morono has awkward dangerous striking, the play is a Semelsberger finish.

This is a little banger right here.  Both of these guys are tough mother-shut-your-moufs and underrated in their own ways.  Drew Dober will be the (-220) favorite and Alves is being a little undervalued at (+175).  I think this fight is closer to a toss-up.

In his most recent bout against Terrance McKinney, Dober was overwhelmed and nearly finished in the first round but held on to consciousness like a stubborn doodie.  Dober has trouble with speed, and Rafael Alves could donate half of his and still have twice as much as Dober.  Alves is bleepin’ explosive and a lot to handle early in the fight.  He had Damir Ismagulov hurt and in trouble in the opening minute of their fight.  He also has nasty guillotines and is coming off a first-round guillotine sub over Mark Diakiese.  Overall, Alves is a little athletic freak.

Alves is a live dog and a finishing threat.  In twenty career wins, he has seven TKO/KO’s and eight subs, five by guillotine.  Drew Dober is also a finisher with seventeen finishes in twenty-four career dubs, and Alves has been submitted six times in his career and three times by TKO/KO.  BUT, I say all that to say this:  I like the value on the fight going over two and a half rounds at (+120). Drew Dober by points is valued at (+185) and an Alves decision at (+600).  These two are tough, and I can see them scraping for the full fifteen minutes.

I highlight this fight because Drakkar Klose is an underrated killer. Maybe not for this matchup, but in general, he’s a slept on fighter in a stacked lightweight division. Klose’s only knock is that he hasn’t been active enough. He returned to action in April for the first time since 2020 and recorded a second-round TKO. Overall, Klose is 12-2 but isn’t known as a finisher, with only five TKO/KO’s and zero subs in fourteen fights. BUT, I think Klose can finish this fight with his nasty left hand, and a TKO/KO finish for Drakkar Klose will return (+325) odds. He has never scored a submission, but a win by sub will return (+2000) odds. You don’t need to be a Jitz blackbelt to get a sub. You need to be able to knock people down and snatch their necks. Klose can do that against the tough Rafa Garcia. 

Last week, I decided to keep the Andy Jacksons at home, tucked away safely in their pleather house. When it came down to dropping some scratch on some of those mangy dogs, I just couldn’t do it. Live to turn Jacksons to Grants another day.

But this week… This week I got time! The two title fights offer purebred Westminister Best in Show title contenders. Juliana Peña (+230) has already proven she can beat Nunes. And beat her at her own game. If Peña can get passed the first ten minutes, her superior cardio will take over. Plus, Juliana has that dog in her; Nunes does not. When the going gets tough, Nunes gets to tapping.

Kai Kara-France (+170) will have a better showing this time around against Brandon Moreno. He’s nearly impossible to take down consistently and hold down, which will make this a twenty-five-minute kickboxing match. With a slight adjustment in his output, Kara-France has the speed and sneaky power to hurt and finish Moreno. Or even out-point Moreno. I see this one as a coin flip, so (+170) odds are a steal.

Rafael Alves (+160) is a lot to handle for fifteen minutes. His speed carries for the full duration and he had Damir Ismagulov hurt early and late in their fight, and I think Ismagulov is a future title challenger. A win by submission for Alves will return (+375) odds, a TKO/KO, (+850), and I think a finish is the only way he wins this fight.

Anthony Smith (+400) can finish anybody on the feet or from his back if he comes in with the right mentality. Smith is always a live dog, and +(400)!?

            Winner: Matthew Semelsberger

            Method: TKO Rd.2

            Winner: Drew Dober

            Method: Decision

    Winner: Don’Tale Mayes

            Method: Decision

    Winner: Drakkar Klose

            Method: TKO Rd.2

    Winner: Michael Morales

            Method: TKO Rd.2

    Winner: Joselyne Edwards

            Method: Decision

    Winner: Ihor Potieria

            Method: TKO Rd.3

    Winner: Orion Cosce

            Method: Decision

Thanks for reading LineStar Weekly Knockout! We’ll be back next Thursday with another one. Until then, good luck and support your local MMA Gym.

My name is Chris Guy, and I’m an avid combat sports enthusiast and practitioner. I’ve been a fan of MMA since the early 2000s when Limewire was still around, and I downloaded Bas Rutten’s Big Book of Combat. In 2004, I started training Muay Thai at City Boxing in San Diego, CA. I competed as an amateur for many years, and I’ve also dabbled in Jiu-Jitsu. I follow many different disciplines, such as Combat Ji-Jitsu, Muay Thai, Glory Kickboxing, Boxing, and MMA.

I’m equally as enthusiastic about the craft of writing, and in addition to writing about combat sports, I also write short fiction and music. I hope to bring unique prose to sports writing, and along the way, encourage people to not only become Martial Arts fans but to also become Martial Artists themselves. 

In the future, you may see me refer to the Thunderdome; it’s an ode to the old Mad Max movie and refers to the world-class training facility I built in my one-car garage. It’s complete with throw dummies, wrestling mats, heavy bags, and six months’ worth of Chef Boyardee cans from when I thought the world was going to end back in March. I hope you enjoy my work, and if you don’t, the Thunderdome has an open door policy. 

Check out my Podcast The Whiskey (S)ick Podcast on Apple and Spotify. Parental Advisory Warning