LineStar® Weekly Knockout (UFC) – Fight Night Dos Anjos vs. Fiziev

We’re Back With Another LineStar Weekly Knockout!

Written by LineStar contributor, combat sports enthusiast, and practitioner, Chris Guy.

Instagram: @therealsethgeko & Twitter: @DadHallOfFamer

The Battle Of The Rafael’s.  Bust out the copper Brett Favre knee-high compression socks for this one, homies.  Some serious leg kicking are about to go down, and you don’t want to mess around and catch some secondhand compression syndrome.  One minute you’re posted up on the Ikea futon, chilling, and the next, you’re yelling, “My legs!  My legs!  Charlie Murphy, my legs!” crawling across the living room, your legs deadweight dragging behind you.  You’ll be posted up at the Applebee’s bar one minute, and the next, flat on your back cramped up with the bartender stretching you out like it’s pregame warm-ups.

This fight right here features the two best kickers in the lightweight division.  If you’re a faithful follower of the Weekly Knockout, then you know there is no such thing as blocking a kick.  If a kick touches you, it will cause damage.  The only way to truly defend a kick is to make it miss completely.  Taking it on the arms or checking a low kick with the shin leads to damage.  Muay Thai fighters will repeatedly kick the arms to deaden them, rendering them virtually useless over time.

Rafael Fiziev is a killer, so don’t push him. Watching Fiziev fight is like watching one hundred car crashes in fifteen minutes.  Every single kick or punch he throws is like a ten-car pile-up.  State Farm covers Rafael Fiziev kicks as part of their basic coverage, zero deductible.  This dude has scary power.  Fiziev throws kicks like Mirko Cro-Cop in his prime: Right leg, emergency room; left leg, cemetery.  For Fiziev, both kicks lead down golden paths to Valhalla.

Fiziev’s lead leg is as powerful as his rear leg, and he throws it without a switch.  Switching on the lead kick gives it more power, but throwing it without a switch makes it quicker to the target and provides no tell.  He can fight from either stance but is a natural orthodox fighter who likes to use the lead leg to set up the rest of his arsenal.  

But Fiziev isn’t all kicks, he uses subtle slips and counters, and his left hook is like a mini Roy Jones.  Fighters become so hyper-aware of Fiziev’s kicks they forget about his hands, which are just as deadly.  Fiziev bobs back and forth like Mike Tyson, and this is a multifaceted technique: 1) It provides a moving target that is hard to hit, and 2) it loads up his strikes giving him extra momentum to throw his hands and shins. 

Fiziev is coming off a highlight reel spinning wheel kick KO of the very tough Brad Riddell.  He left Riddell frozen against the cage, in suspended animation, cryogenic.  They had Riddell chilling next to Ted Williams’ head. Riddell woke up on a teraformed earth, previously known as Mars in the year 3037.  In place of TP in the men’s room, they had three seashells.  Riddell had no success taking Fiziev down and got stuck in a kickboxing match.  And if you get stuck in a kickboxing match with Rafael Fiziev, you’re gonna have a bad time (unless you’re Bobby “King” Green).

As I mentioned, this will be a Project Runway season finale catwalk showdown of kicks.  The best kicks in the lightweight division will be paraded around the Octagon, their diva attitudes demanding the crowd’s adulation with every impact.  Dos Anjos’ kicks are his best weapon on the feet; his natural southpaw stance against an orthodox fighter exposes the opponent’s liver to his power round kicks.  Eventually, fighters react to defend the body, and Dos Anjos then goes high.  The kicks also jumpstart his hands, which are heavy but not dynamic.  Dos Anjos’s hands are mostly short, round basic 1’s and 1-2’s that he uses to initiate the clinch and takedown attempts.

Rafael Dos Anjos is on his second stint in the lightweight division after going 4-4 as a welterweight.  He returned to lightweight in 2020 against Paul Felder and is coming off a destruction of Renato Moicano in his most recent bout.  Moicano stepped in on short notice after Rafael Fiziev had to drop the fight originally.  Dos Anjos is on the fringe of title contention, and a win over Rafael Fiziev would put him, at the very least, in a title eliminator in his next bout.

Dos Anjos made his UFC debut in 2008 and briefly held the lightweight belt after beating Anthony Pettis.  Over the years, Dos Anjos has developed a heavy-wrestling skillset to supplement his striking and has only really struggled against fighters who were better wrestlers than him.  The game plan against Fiziev will be to initiate the clinch, work trips, and establish top position.  He can stand and bang with Fiziev if his wrestling isn’t effective, but he rarely stands and bangs for the entirety of a fight.

In six UFC bouts, Rafael Fiziev’s takedown defense has been a solid noinety-five percent, having given up only one takedown.  Should Dos Anjos struggle (and at some point, he will) to get the fight to the mat, this will be an absolute stand-up war.  The bodies will pile up until the squawking from the flocks of carrion birds feasting on them can be heard from miles away.

The numbers: Dos Anjos is 31-13 and 20-11 in the UFC.  Dos Anjos is a veteran with a cape on, a super veteran and will have a massive experience advantage against Fiziev.  For his career, Dos Anjos is a fifty percent finisher with five TKO/KO’s and ten submissions.  Rafael Fiziev is 11-1 and 5-1 in the UFC.  He’s currently on a five-fight winning streak and has seven career TKO/KO’s and one sub.  Fiziev’s value will be in a highlight reel finish throughout the fight’s duration, and nearly five significant strikes landed per minute, compared to Dos Anjos’ three and a half.  Being the more active fighter will also be an advantage when it comes to the judges.  Usually the more active fighter will get the nod if there aren’t any standout moments during the round.

Rafael Fiziev will be stepping in as the early (-220) favorite and provides the better chance of scoring a finish inside twenty-five minutes.  But the odds (-155) favor the fight going over four and a half rounds.  The fight ending under four and half rounds will give you (+120) odds.  The plus side for Dos Anjos is the possibility of takedowns and top control time with a long shot at a submission from the top.  Dos Anjos has ten wins by submission and is particularly handy with rear-naked and arm-triangle chokes.  

Israel Adesanya mercifully ended the main event-losing streak last week; it wasn’t pretty, but it was dominant.  I think this fight is a tale of two fighters at opposite spectrums of their careers.  Although Dos Anjos is still a dangerous and high-level fighter, I think his best days appear closer than they are in the rear view.  And Fiziev is transitioning into his prime.  Rafael Fiziev via TKO, round three.

Winner: Rafael Fiziev | Method: TKO Rd.3

Sound the air raid sirens; this is a fookin’ banger.  Caio Borralho is making his second co-main event appearance in his second UFC fight.  Before his debut, I called Borralho a Dollar General Lyoto Machida.  He went out and completely annihilated a man whose last name ends in “ev.”  And it wasn’t even that he dominated; it was how he dominated, on the mat, grappling decagons around a dominant wrestler.  I was wrong.  Caio Borralho is a Gucci Lyoto Machida.  He made Lyoto Machida look like he runs a Rex Kwon Do franchised gym in the mall.  

Caio Borralho is a southpaw who uses a bladed upright karate stance and relies on in/out movement to attack and defend.  Borralho has two special moves, a counter-check right hook, and a retreating flying knee.  The flying knee is a timing technique that he throws repeatedly throughout the fight.  As he retreats under pressure, Caio will leap into a flying knee, and the opponent will walk right into it.  He also has DeLorean hand speed; hands so fast they hit you yesterday.

What I didn’t know about Borralho before his debut was how good his Jiu-Jitsu is.  He has JanSport back control, some of the best I’ve seen.  Caio uses the body triangle from the back mount and switches the triangle back forth as the opponent tries to escape to the lock side.  This will be a major key in this fight; Armen Petrosyan tends to expose his back as he scrambles back to his feet after a takedown.  For Petrosyan, that could be like crying after winning a play-in game, losing in the first round, and being traded in the offseason, a bad look.  

Petrosyan made his debut against Brazilian Deebo, Gregory Rodrigues, and won a very close fight that I thought Rodrigues should’ve won.  But it wasn’t a Valero robbery; Petrosyan had big moments and showed he has a massive heart, staying in the fight after being dropped multiple times.  This dude is a killer on the feet, hyper-aggressive with long hand combinations and heavy kicks.  Last weekend, Bryan Barberena put on a clinic against Robbie Lawler on using volume at varying tempos to overwhelm.  Petrosyan can implement a similar style, keeping his hands pumping like he’s at an EDM concert and hiding heavy round kicks behind them.

Petrosyan lacks takedown defense but makes up for it with hustle.  The best way to get back to your feet is to scramble as soon as your ass hits the mat.  Never accept the takedown.  Petrosyan doesn’t relent to the bottom position and will force scrambles nonstop.  This skill was honed from defending takedowns in every one of his fights.  Nobody wants to stand and bang with him.  The mailman even shoots on him when he hands Petrosyan a package.  The keys for Petrosyan will be avoiding the clinch and the cage and keeping the fight standing.  Even on the feet, Petrosyan will be playing with fire against Borralho, but Petrosyan can stand with anyone.  

Armen is 7-1 with six TKO/KO’s and has a win on the Contender Series.  Borralho is the more experienced fighter at 11-1 and has four TKO/KO’s and three submissions.  Both fighters have spent nearly fifteen minutes in the cage, but Petrosyan averaged seven and a half significant strikes per minute and landed one hundred and twenty-seven.  Borralho only landed thirty-one stikes and averaged about three and a half per minute.  But Borralho racked up over ten minutes of control time, most of it from the back.  Borralho’s dual-threat on the mat and on the feet have him as the (-190) favorite, making Petrosyan a valuable dog who can drop a Kobe eighty-one on any given night.  The question is, how good are Borralho’s takedowns?  The difference could be control time.  Caio Borralho via decision.  On wax. 

Winner: Caio Borralho | Method: Decision

You already know what time it is when you see that last name.  Somebody’s getting f***ed up.  Nurmagomedov’s are like the real-life X-Men; they all have individual special powers, and although they’re not blood-related, they’re united by the common ability of dominant wrestling.  We recently saw Umar Nurmagomedov, whose special power is the question mark kick.  This week we will see Said, whose special power is the spinning backfist.  This guy throws spinning backfists like jabs, using it as a counter and offensively.  Said’s got more spins than Maytag, more spins than “Born In the USA” on the Fourth of July. 

When Said throws spinning backfists, it’s more than just a flashy technique; he lands it at a high rate by putting his jab in front of it and using the momentum to spin in a blink.  Once the opponent starts blocking high, Said turns the backfist into a back-kick, and their whole world turns upside down.  They don’t know what’s what.  Nurmagomedov also has a stiff boxer’s jab, and the dexterity in his lead leg is similar to Umar’s.  A rarity, Said’s lead-side strikes are far more effective than his power-side strikes, and his effectiveness on the feet is based on speed and misdirection.

Of course, Said can wrestle/grapple, and his only major weakness is in the pocket exchanging.  Said needs space to spin and initiate with his long-range kicks; he gets claustrophobic in the pocket and doesn’t have the classic boxing skills to trade back and forth.  But exchanging in the pocket happens to be Douglas de Andrade’s strength, so this will be a battle of range on the feet and who can establish it in their favor.

Said is 15-2 and 4-1 in the UFC, his loss coming to the very tough Raoni Barcelos.  It was one of the rare occasions you’ll see a Nurmagomedov get out-grappled.  For his career, Said is just above a fifty percent finisher with four wins by TKO/KO and four by submission.  But Said is coming off back-to-back destructions of Mark Striegl and Cody Stamann.  Those fights combined lasted less than two minutes.

Douglas de Andrade is a Miley Cyrus wrecking ball and reminds me of the former UFC competitor and current One FC champ, John Lineker.  More importantly, Douglas looks like Tuco from Breaking Bad and Better Call Saul.  Tuco doesn’t mess around, and like my granny playing twister, he’s off his rocker.  Andrade throws nothing but short, wide hooks and can survive in a firefight by inhaling the fumes.  He has the style on the feet to cause Said problems if he can draw out Said’s spinning attacks, get inside, and unload.

I wouldn’t be surprised if this one stayed standing for most of the duration.  Andrade’s takedown defense tends to get better as the fight progresses and has close to seventy-percent takedown defense.  Andrade has an excellent 28-4 record, including 6-4 in the UFC, while facing names like Petr Yan, Chito Vera, and Rob Font.  More impressively, Andrade has finished twenty-two of his career dubs with twenty TKO/KO’s and two subs.  He’s riding a two-fight winning/finishing streak and is coming off a massive comeback win against Sergey Morozov.

As the (+220) dog, de Andrade will have value if he can survive the first five minutes.  He was almost finished early in his last bout and often gets off to slow starts.  But once he finds his range, his striking is final, and he can sleep anybody.  The odds say this one ends before the final bell at (-175), and going the distance is (+135).  Both fighters are tough to finish, so I’ll play the plus money.  Said Nurmagomedov via decision.

Winner: Said Nurmagomedov | Method: Decision

If this were college football, these guys wouldn’t even qualify for the North Dakota Camo Crocs Bowl.  I for sure, for sure thought we had seen the last of PC Principal, Chase Sherman, in the Octagon after his last bout against Alexander Romanov.  Sherman was duffed-out and baby-boy’d for a full two minutes before wisely tapping to a Kimura before becoming a new member of the BAC (Bidet Advocates Committee).  Or being forced to solve the puzzle of the three seashells.

When Stephen King wrote about the Loser’s Club, he had these guys in mind.  Chase Sherman is 3-9 in the UFC, and Jared Vanderaa is 1-4.  But it’s okay because they both identify as winners and claim undefeated records.  This fight will be a battle of who can deny reality longer.  

Chase Sherman has 24 Hour Fitness Zumba room boxing with decent hands but zero point zero head movement.  He holds his chin high up in the air like he smells something is afoot.  Sherman is riding a four-fight losing streak, but to his credit, he has faced some solid competition.  The value in Sherman is a possible early finish; he’s 15-10 for his career with fourteen TKO/KO’s.

Jared Vanderaa became Alexey Oleynik’s sixtieth professional dub in his last bout.  He got caught in a scarf hold, which looks like what my pops used to do to me when I’d mouth off.  Vanderaa and Sherman have common opponents and losses in Andrei Arlovski and Alexander Romanov.  The one-up for Vanderaa is that he made it into the second round against Romanov.

Vanderaa is 12-8 in his career and got most of his experience scrapping with umpires at Little League games.  Seven of his wins came via TKO/KO and three by submission.  He will be the less technical striker, but I think he’ll have the power advantage.  What he won’t have is the speed advantage.  He has stuck-in-rush-hour traffic on the 405 hand speed but averages four and a half significant strikes per minute.  Sherman averages over six significant strikes per minute, and both have the potential to land over one hundred strikes if the fight goes to the later rounds.

They say losing builds character; if that’s true, these guys have enough to earn stars on the Walk Of Fame.  The odds favor a quick night for one of them at (-190), but you can get Vanderaa at (+225) and Sherman at (+250) for a finish.  Jared Vanderaa is the pick ‘em favorite at (-185), and I think that plus money for a finish is looking Juicy like Biggie.  Jared Vanderaa via TKO, round two.

Winner: Jared Vanderaa | Method: TKO Rd.2

This is a battle similar to one every man has waged after an impromptu Taco Bell run at one in the morning: A man with a plunger vs. A stubborn doodie that refuses to go down.  Jamie Mullarkey is that doodie, and Michael Johnson will be rolling into the cage on some Super Mario Bros type shit, literally.  

What makes Jamie Mullarkey so dangerous is that he looks so not-dangerous, undangerous (is that a word).  Mullarkey doesn’t have any skills that stand out other than being tough as hell and hanging around in fights against opponents that are better than him until his will breaks them, and he walks away with a dub.  In middle school, he sold the most magazine subscriptions because he simply refused to leave your porch until you bought something. Jamie has Nintendo Wii boxing on the feet; it looks like he’s wearing a pair of VR goggles in the living room as he bobs and weaves, looking for openings.  But don’t let that fool you; Mullarkey has sneaky good hands that he throws from odd angles and nasty calf kicks to set them up.

Mullarkey is especially nasty in the clinch, using knees, elbows, and old-school dirty boxing to wear down opponents.  Jamie’s special power is making fights super ugly by grinding in close quarters, securing takedowns and maintaining top control, and refusing to lose when he’s behind.  Most importantly, everyone had a kid on their tee-ball team that looked like Jamie Mullarkey, and that ain’t no Mullarkey.

Michael Johnson will win this fight in the first or early second-round via stoppage, or he will lose by stoppage after the halfway mark.  This is the exact type of fight MJ would lose.  He has had one of the most head-scratching careers, having beat some of the world’s best competition like Dustin Poirier, Edson Barboza, Gleison Tibau, Joe Lauzon, and Tony Ferguson.  Johnson is a twenty-five-fight UFC veteran and has shared the Octagon with the best in the sport, including Justin Gaethje and Khabib, and has compiled a 12-13 record in the promotion.  

MJ is unique in the way that he almost wins every fight he loses.  His hand speed is top five dead or alive in the UFC and causes every single opponent (even Khabib) problems.  Johnson is a long boxer who offensively uses his reach to land shots from the outside.  Unfortunately, he never learned how to use his reach defensively and takes heavy damage even against lesser strikers.  

The key for MJ against Mullarkey will be avoiding the cage and subsequently, the clinch.  For his career, MJ has a seventy-eight percent takedown defense and is tough to get to the mat; he’s athletic and explosive and hard to get hold of.  But Mullarkey doesn’t give up and averages almost three and a half takedowns per fifteen minutes.  The longer the fight goes, the more likely Mullarkey will be able to relocate the fight and go to work.

Johnson will be stepping into the cage leaving behind puddles of value on the mat as the (+195) underdog.  Mullarkey will have to strap on the gasoline boots and walk through hell for the first five to seven minutes.  The play for MJ is an early finish; any finish for MJ will return (+325) odds.  The odds of the fight ending before the full fifteen minutes are (-205) and (+155) to go the distance.  Chances are, one of these guys will be getting waved off at its conclusion.  I hate to do this, but I’m picking the grimy Jamie Mullarkey to bust out the Macarena and the chicken dance early, only to survive, drag MJ to the mat, and eventually score the finish.  Jamie Mullarkey via TKO, round two.

Winner: Jamie Mullarkey | Method: TKO Rd.2

I gotta show love for the first fight of the night.  This one is an absolute banger and sleeper.  This should be on the main card in place of Vanderaa vs. PC Principal.  I like this matchup because both fighters can rack up Fantasy points in different ways.  

Saidyokub Kakhramonov has a specialty: Head and arm chokes like Brabo, D’arce, Guillotine (arm-in), and Anacondas.  He’s a kickboxer with excellent chokes that he uses to defend takedowns.  He constantly looks to snatch the neck and pulled off a last-second guillotine submission win in his last bout against Trevin Jones after being controlled for most of the fight on the mat.  

Ronnie Lawrence also has a specialty: 

            Takedowns

            Takedowns

            Takedowns

Takedowns on top of takedowns.  Check it; in three UFC bouts, Lawrence has averaged a crazy noine takedowns per fifteen minutes.  But Lawrence will have to be very careful and set them up because guillotine chokes are one of the best defenses against takedowns.  As a kickboxer, they were my bread and butter when competing in MMA rule sets against grapplers.  You have to give up on the takedown to defend the choke, or else… Kakhramonov attempted four guillotine chokes in his debut against Jones, and the fourth one was the charm.

Ronnie Lawrence has some of the slickest level change takedowns I’ve seen in a while.  He has above average kickboxing that affords him time to set them up and doesn’t have to shoot desperately.  Saidyokub will have the power advantage on the feet and throws short bombs, and his goal will be to keep it standing.  But if he ends up on his back or against the cage, you better Protect Ya Neck!

Lawrence’s dominant grappling earned him the favorite status at (-140), and the odds of this one going the distance is (-190).  Kakhramonov is 9-2 and has been finished by TKO/KO once, and Lawrence is 8-1 and has yet to be finished.  But if I’m betting on Kakhramonov, I’m betting the finish; he’ll either catch Lawrence on the feet or in one of his patented chokes.  Although Lawrence is an excellent grappler with excellent takedowns, he has zero submission wins.  Lawrence will win this fight with takedowns and top control over fifteen minutes.  You better have your ass in the Lazy Boy for the opening fight of the night like Chris Pratt, homies.  Ronnie Lawrence via decision.  On wax.

Winner: Ronnie Lawrence | Method: Decision

Last week I went down in a heaping Hindenburg blaze, going 0-2 on sleepers. I had a Jackson on Max Holloway and a Hamilton on an Alex Pereira decision win. But I’m back in the on-deck circle, two doughnuts around the Louisville Slugger taking warmup hacks for another chance at glory this week.

If you look at my pick ‘em picks, you’ll see I’m riding with a few dogs, but my confidence is on E. This one has the potential to get real ugly quick. Last week, the night’s first fight turned everything upside down when Julia Stoliarenko broke Jessica Rose Clark’s arm in the first round. This week, Saidyokub Kakhramonov (+110) has the potential to start the show with an upset again. Ronnie Lawrence will be shooting double legs all fight long, giving Kakhramonov plenty of time to snatch his neck. He’ll also have the edge in the stand-up should Lawrence struggle with takedowns.

Michael Johnson (+195): MJ is a whirlwind of overwhelming hand speed, and in almost every one of his seventeen career L’s, he had his opponents on the ropes looking woozy. Jamie Mullarkey will be in a world of trouble if he can’t immediately get inside, initiate the clinch, and drag MJ to the mat. The likelihood of an MJ early finish is a coin flip, and in no way should he be a (+195) dog. 

Loooooooongshot: Douglas Silva de Andrade (+235) has the striking style to cause Said Nurmagomedov problems on the feet. He also has the grappling to get back to his feet and keep the fight standing where he has a chance to land one of his massive little bombs. Said is not a pocket striker, and Andrade is. If Andrade can draw out the Said’s spinning shit and get inside, he can shock the world. BUT, big but, all four of his losses came to high-level competition, and Said Nurmagomedov is definitely that.

            Winner: Nina Nunes

            Method: Decision

            Winner: Aimann Zahabi

            Method: Decision

    Winner: Cortney Casey

            Method: Decision

    Winner: Tresean Gore

            Method: TKO Rd.2

    Winner: David Onama

            Method: TKO Rd.2

    Winner: Kennedy Nzechukwu

            Method: TKO Rd.3

    Winner: Ronnie Lawrence

            Method: Decision

Thanks for reading LineStar Weekly Knockout! We’ll be back next Thursday with another one. Until then, good luck and support your local MMA Gym.

My name is Chris Guy, and I’m an avid combat sports enthusiast and practitioner. I’ve been a fan of MMA since the early 2000s when Limewire was still around, and I downloaded Bas Rutten’s Big Book of Combat. In 2004, I started training Muay Thai at City Boxing in San Diego, CA. I competed as an amateur for many years, and I’ve also dabbled in Jiu-Jitsu. I follow many different disciplines, such as Combat Ji-Jitsu, Muay Thai, Glory Kickboxing, Boxing, and MMA.

I’m equally as enthusiastic about the craft of writing, and in addition to writing about combat sports, I also write short fiction and music. I hope to bring unique prose to sports writing, and along the way, encourage people to not only become Martial Arts fans but to also become Martial Artists themselves. 

In the future, you may see me refer to the Thunderdome; it’s an ode to the old Mad Max movie and refers to the world-class training facility I built in my one-car garage. It’s complete with throw dummies, wrestling mats, heavy bags, and six months’ worth of Chef Boyardee cans from when I thought the world was going to end back in March. I hope you enjoy my work, and if you don’t, the Thunderdome has an open door policy. 

Check out my Podcast The Whiskey (S)ick Podcast on Apple and Spotify. Parental Advisory Warning